Fascinating new perspective on cycles in history.
He looks at long cycles in history from several points of view which overlap.
His first idea is that empires and dominant civilizations arise at points where two distinct cultural and social groups meet. This clash of groups heightens intragroup identity and creates a one for all, all for one survival mentality. This is how a smaller cultural group can coalesce and in the end defeat a much larger rival culture with a weaker intragroup identity. He calls this intragroup dynamic the group's "asabiya". As examples of this phenomenon he examines in detail the Roman Empire, looks at the Cossack expansion east and south, and also examines the rise of the Carolingian Empire in Medieval Europe. Convincingly argued. A dominant civilization's cycle can last for 1000 years even, with some up and down cycles along the way.
The next cycle he looks at he refers to as a secular cycle (there is a recent book with this title). This is essentially an economic cycle but with cumulative social consequences. It is a cycle where economic inequality increases over time due to various social and political processes that seem to be hard to regulate. At the same time, there is a disproportionate growth of numbers in the elite of society. In the end there is a shortage of resources for everyone - the bottom end of society has limited economic resources; the elites have little opportunity for advancement and limited access to political power. This leads to a weakening of group asabiya, a breakdown in social cooperation, increased conflict and finally revolution, civil war or some such catastrophe. This phase continues until everyone is thoroughly sick of it. War and subsequent disease, disorder and famine, eventually reduce the number of elites and the number of people in general, and there is a return to cooperation and a more equitable distribution of wealth simply because there is now a higher proportion of opportunities and resources available to everyone.
This secular cycle however, eventually weakens the group asabiya to the point where it can no longer be rebuilt and the civilization crumbles, fades, in subsumed by another new stronger group.
He also has an interesting section on southern Italy and how lost its asabiya centuries ago due to repeated conquering by foreign rulers. It is essentially a look at how it can be next to impossible to rebuild asabiya, trust, a civil society once it is gone.
This book provides and interesting perspective on current social and political events around the world. It offers a very long view framework into which these short-term events and trends can be placed. For me, it provides some intriguing points from which to think about what is going on economically and politically in our own western societies and in other societies around the world.
Worth owning for occasional dipping and refreshing.
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