Originally published in 1994. It seems like a collection of shorter pieces probably written for magazines. Focuses on the future of the political international landscape after the fall of the USSR. Makes predictions about developments in various parts of the world in the coming decade. He predicts increased strife, more tribal or ethnic politics and political divisions. It would be interesting if I had the time to take some of his specific predictions and examine how events and politics have unfolded in that area since 1994 - now almost 20 years ago.
The most interesting piece is entitled, "Was Democracy Just a Moment". It looks at various forces which Kaplan claims will make it unlikely that functional democracy will take hold in many areas of the developing world: poverty, economic stagnation, powerful elites, conflicting racial or ethnic identities, regionalism, the rise of international corporate power and the shrinking power domain of governments. He also traces some of these same factors eating away at democratic institutions in the U.S. He also mentions some noteworthy failures of democratic government (Hitler, Mussolini, Rwanda) and points to some authoritarian leaders who have on the whole had a beneficial effect of their country's social well-beoing. Worth a reread.
To find: Balkan Ghosts, Robert D. Kaplan
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