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Monday, 19 February 2018

Turkey and the West: Fault Lines in a Troubled Alliance - Kemal Kirişci

A depressing book for anyone interested in Turkey as a country and culture.

This book is basically a history of the Turkey's relationship with the Europe and the U.S. from late Ottoman times to the current Erdoğan period.
The book traces periodic shifts from deeper relations with the West to a more distant stance through the whole period.  I was mostly interested in the longer chapters dealing with the AKP, Erdoğan and policy and relations since about 2000.

The book gives a brief but clear account of how Erdoğan has moved over time to eliminate all other power bases both within the country and also within the AKP itself to leave himself holding most of the power at all levels and in all areas.  In essence, creating what is practically one man rule, or a dictatorship.  This in itself, of course, puts him at odds with the basic tenets of the EU, and introduces some hesitancy or conflict into relations with the U.S.

There is also an account of Davutoğlu's influence on foreign policy and regional ambitions.  Turns out both he and Erdoğan are big supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood, and through them partly, fell into the delusion of rebuilding the Ummah and creating a pan-Islamic state covering the Middle East, Central Asia and North Africa. With Turkey at its centre, of course.  Strange dream.  D and E seem to have also fallen into some delusion concerning Turkey's true weight and importance in the region.  Turkey was well-regarded by many in other predominantly Islamic states in the area, especially by reformers, but it turns out this actually had to do with envying the closer relations Turkey was building in the early Erdoğan years with the EU and the U.S., and little to do with the AKP, Erdoğan and internal Turkish politics.  E and D's shift to a more aggressive regional approach, and a more confrontational attitude towards the EU and the U.S, and subsequent worsening of relations with these blocks, has led to a complete evaporation of whatever respect and admiration there was for Turkey in other regional countries.

Interesting fact:  most large business organizations  do not support the current AKP foreign policies.  Bad for trade with the EU, their prime trading partner.

It seems Erdoğan has painted himself into a bit of a corner with his nationalist rhetoric.  Turkey needs the EU and the U.S. for economic survival, but his base depends on his extreme nationalist posturing and rhetoric.  Makes for difficult management of relations, economic and otherwise.  (Kind of like Trump with American allies and neighbours.)

One other point of interest - the author comes down on the side of mostly blaming Europe for the failure of Turkey's EU accession talks, which have in part fuelled Erdoğan's foreign policies and rhetoric.   Culturocentrism and religiocentrism. 

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